do numbers lie

COVID-19 can kill you. Among which are certain biases when regarding and interpreting numerical data – such as denominator bias and recency bias. Not only do governments have to test they have to be straight when reporting the numbers North Korea claims it does not have a single case despite a sizable outbreak across its southern border. On further consideration of the language I note that no start point is identified for the claimed ‘soaring’ of Yes support. What if BJ goes? Also, that people have made up their minds about independence and are simply equating a vote for the SNP with a vote for independence and couldn’t give a proverbial for all the negativity around the party right now? In addition to lists, any data that is time-bound could have arbitrary cutoff dates, so we should always keep that in mind. But until we ask ourselves the tough hard questions and are willing to accept that the numbers or answers may not be exemplary – we are doing our clients a disservice. Numbers don’t lie, but sometimes our brains do ... What do you get when you add research jargon with statistics and multiply by the human brain’s tricks of perception? The numbers tell a very positive story. SAP is the world’s leading provider of business software – enterprise resource planning, business intelligence, and related applications and services that help companies…. Talker. A new survey claims that many Catholics support same-sex "marriage." Reader. Then you get endless debates about whether two plus two really does always equal four. Do the Numbers Lie? When you listen to Dave Thompson reeling off his practised spiel, bear in mind that you are listening to a politician, That may be all the context you require. I am not reassured! But what the illustration actually demonstrates is that context is crucial. Do numbers lie? Title: Numbers Lie Author: surfyogi Created Date: 7/24/2012 2:46:04 PM What matters is whether those people actually care about what you’re saying, if you’re engaging them, and if it results in a real business benefit. Because I know that the numbers on their own don’t lie. Because it is necessary. The poll tells us that the SNP is popular and it tells us why. While it is true polls can be manipulated to achieve a desired result, it is also true numbers do not lie. Do you have other examples of "numbers that lie"? Here, I am more interested in what reasons there may be for having confidence in this lead rather than whether the explanations for the lead constitute good reasons for voting Yes. Accepting these as the inputs, I don’t need a calculator to figure out that the difference between these two numbers is 12. Narrative context – language – can be added to a simple calculation to cast doubt on the arithmetic. By the same token, a complex calculation may be presented absent the narrative context necessary for proper understanding. Listener. Computational fact checking is a way to view what the data says and implementing these strategies can help us understand the facts better, especially in politics. What more needs to be said in order to more fully understand the reality and the implications? By extending the availability of software across on-premise installations, on-demand deployments and mobile devices, SAP enables people at the office or in the field to work more efficiently and use business insight more effectively. You could play this game all day long. We have to look at the words as well as the numbers. This description seems to be de rigeur regardless of the trend indicated by the numbers. ( Log Out /  The fight to restore Scotland’s independence absolutely depends on the SNP not just winning that election but winning it at least as decisively as the poll suggests. It’s an ‘idiosyncratic’ use of the word ‘soar’. It is essential to examine not only the numbers but also the narrative – the context – in order to arrive at a good understanding of what it all means. As you say, “context” is everything, but let’s not get too downhearted about healthy poll leads. I look at the words as well. Strikers are paid to score goals. “Narratives without statistics are blind, statistics without narratives are empty.”. Am I the only one who is seriously concerned about the durability of this support for Yes in the polls? If you find these articles at all interesting or thought-provoking, please consider sharing them with your contacts or making a small donation to help maintain and improve this site. There is not the slightest doubt that 56 is 12 more than 44. If independence only seems like a good option when compared to Boris Johnson then what happens when Boris Johnson goes the way of most British Prime Ministers? And the words offer no assurance about the robustness and resilience of this supposed 12 point lead for Yes. Or they are fobbed off with a smug and smirking reminder that ‘the numbers don’t lie’. Description: Some graphics deceive or mislead based on how the information is presented. I note that the headline includes the words “Yes soars”. Therefore its meaning is of limited or no use. Numbers That Are Too General. Any who question the conclusion are dismissed as fools who don’t understand how it all works. It is a case of starting with the conclusion and working backwards until a pleasing arrangement of numbers is found which makes that conclusion appear sound and then calling it ‘proof’. We have to expect a bit of sensationalising. Do The Numbers Lie? Which is not surprising as there has been no real independence campaigning for many years. Example from daily life: Any “Top 10” list. To claim that it has is to disseminate a falsehood. But there is no thoughtful analysis involved. If we afford a previous but recent poll the same credibility as we have allowed this one then Yes has ‘soared’ from … They especially like to lie about numbers. Numbers – mathematical ‘proofs’ – may be used to narrow the range of possible interpretation. The numbers don’t lie when you ask the right questions. And/or because the truth is disturbing. This is a matter I came at from a different perspective in a recent article. It is the context provided by the narrative which creates the impression of some doubt about the arithmetic. If you would like to make a donation to help with the running costs of this site, please click here. NINJA Loans No Income No Job No Assets Loan Brokers Removing pages from files, Forging documents Making up Pay Stubs and Tax Returns Accounting Ethics Financial Crisis of 2007 End Mortgage Brokers sold high risk loans to Wall Street Converted to Securities and This description seems to be de rigeur regardless of the trend indicated by the numbers. The data helps journalists quantify the scale of the pandemic and allows news consumers to assess the risk. Volumes have been written about the use and misuse of baseball stats, but one of the most common mistakes is to judge a player based on a few weeks or months of performance. You need to take your analysis further and perhaps you will be more assured. We must be constantly, incessantly reminded of these biases if we hope to compensate for them in our analysis. I got that with Yes on 56% and No on 44% there is a 12 point difference in favour of Yes. Numbers themselves don’t lie. Both of which are vulnerable to the kind of attack that is the speciality of the British state. Poor Reverend Bayes, who … It takes multiple years of data to validate the true talent level of a player. As a reminder to all of us who use data in work and life to make decisions, I’ve put together some examples of how numbers can often lie or mislead. I have purposefully chosen an illustration which seems to suggest that Dave Thompson and the cunning plan cult are correct in claiming that the numbers don’t lie. Description: Such figures state that Variable A causes Variable B, when in fact they are merely correlated. By Michael Meyer On 2/12/95 at 7:00 PM EST. COVID-19 will go down in the history of mankind as the perfect example of why this is true. Example from daily life: Online voting polls. Change ). It’s more like a word-processor. What we don’t have to accept is the reality as portrayed by the sensationalising language. Feed in the same numbers and operators and arithmetic will always give the same answer. I note that the headline includes the words “Yes soars”. They repeat the same arrangement of figures over and over like religious zealots handing down the unchallengeable word of their god. Put your best foot forward but don’t fudge the numbers and don’t let the numbers lie. In today's society, it is very easy to manipulate data to say what we want it to day. Basically cricket as a game is not about stats, and evaluation by numbers does not reveal the actual contribution. In anticipation of the inevitable backlash from what I’m going to say here, let me get this out of the way upfront. But business pressures can cloud their judgment. To get a sense of that it is necessary to look at the narrative provided by James Johnson – whose credibility is given a bit of sheen by mention of the fact that he used to be Theresa May’s pollster. The answer, for many of us, is confusion. They are incapable of lying. Or be it any sport. Poor Reverend Bayes, who understood … Given what has been set out above it’s easy to understand why. But the numbers on their own can tell us only what that particular arrangement of numbers must always tell us regardless of whether what it is telling us is relevant to the story, or helpful in our understanding of the story. By Tom Baugher, J.D., CFE. fans doesn’t really mean anything, yet they are often used as a proxy of someone’s level of “influence.” There are easy ways to get a ton of followers in social media. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Thompson and his cronies use the tricks of political rhetoric to make the numbers deceive. And like parents who trust their child—sometimes a little too much—business leaders often fail to ask the right questions to uncover the hidden truth. Writer. When I read this article about the most recent favourable polling for Yes in The National I naturally noted the numbers. All Rights Reserved, This is a BETA experience. However innately clever or well-educated the person they are still human and subject to the frailties that beset all humans. Incidentally, that’s 12 percentage points and NOT 12% as proclaimed by the headline. This story originally appeared on SAP Business Trends. Patel? The human mind isn’t a calculator. Thinker. The more the better. The problem is, until the numbers are truly TRUSTED, we don’t actually know anything. No conclusion final. COVID-19 is news based on numbers. © 2021 Forbes Media LLC. Why does this blog have 6 bullet points instead of 10? Writer. But mostly it writes stories. They just may not be telling the truth we want to think they’re telling. What does he have to say about the result of his poll? COVID-19 is a news story driven by the numbers.